HUMAN FERTILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA AND GHANA (1980 – 2023): AN ARDL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between human fertility and economic growthin Nigeria and Ghana, utilising annual time series data from 1980 to 2023. The study employed theARDL estimation technique and found that the impact of the total fertility rate (measured by numberof children per woman) on economic growth (measured by real gross domestic product growth rate)differs between the two countries. In Nigeria, the total fertility rate has a negative but notstatistically significant effect on economic growth in the short run (-26.6782; P-value 0.1045), buta positive and statistically significant impact in the long run (17.9225; P-value 0.0380). In contrast,Ghana experiences a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth from its totalfertility rate in both the short (-8.4670; P-value 0.0005) and long run periods (-10.5597; P-value0.0028). The study recommends that policymakers in Nigeria focus on long-term economic growthby improving the quality of education and access, implementing family planning programs, andpromoting vocational training. In Ghana, policymakers should implement family planningprograms, integrate family planning education into school curricula, empower women, and allocateresources for family planning programs and human capital development.