CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE IN AFRICA: BETWEEN INFRASTRUCTURE GAINS AND DEBT RISKS

Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, has become one of themost consequential frameworks shaping Africa’s infrastructure and development trajectory. Withmore than fifty African states participating, the BRI has facilitated large-scale projects in transport,energy, ports, and digital infrastructure, offering opportunities to close Africa’s long-standingconnectivity gap. Proponents argue that these investments represent a transformative“development promise,” stimulating trade, industrialization, and regional integration whileproviding alternatives to Western aid and financing models. However, growing concerns haveemerged regarding debt sustainability, transparency, and strategic dependency. Many BRI projectsare financed through Chinese loans, raising the risk of debt distress, as seen in Kenya’s StandardGauge Railway and Ethiopia’s rail projects. Critics warn that ambiguous contracts, high repaymentburdens, and project underperformance could reinforce structural dependency, limiting Africanpolicy autonomy and creating potential avenues for Chinese strategic leverage. At the same time,evidence suggests that outcomes are not uniform: several states have renegotiated loan terms,diversified partnerships, and leveraged BRI projects for local development. This study examinesthe BRI in Africa as a dual-edged phenomenon, highlighting both its contributions to infrastructuredevelopment and its potential to create debt vulnerabilities. This study adopts a qualitative researchdesign that relies on secondary data analysis. The focus is to examine how China’s Belt and RoadInitiative (BRI) in Africa simultaneously offers development opportunities and creates debt-relatedvulnerabilities. It argues that the developmental benefits of the BRI will depend largely on thefiscal prudence, transparency, and negotiating capacity of African governments in futurecooperation.